Data released this morning by Standard & Poor’s showed an annual decline of 3.7 percent in November for the 20-city composite reading of its S&P/Case-Shiller home price index. Analysts were expecting a year-over-year drop in the range of 3.2 to 3.4 percent. Eighteen cities were in negative territory. Detroit and Washington, D.C. were the only exceptions. At -11.8 percent, Atlanta continued to post the lowest annual return.

DQ News just released their December sales and they are also showing an overall drop in prices for the Bay Area.

What we need to remember is that this is a generalized report, and goes county-by-county.  In Alameda County and Contra Costa County there are micro-neighborhoods where sales are very skewed (such as Oakland in Alameda County and Richmond in Contra Costa County) and these figures throw these reports off.  This is why it is SO IMPORTANT to look at the zip codes, and some of those zips should even be dissected further.

Take a look at Berkeley zip code 94708, which has seen a 7.1% increase from this same time last year. One house, located in this zip code, is on the market and had over 50 requests for disclosure packets.  Albany, as a whole, has seen prices drop.  But if the house is centrally located and in good condition, multiple offers are happening left and right…one house I know currently has over 30 disclosure packets out.  Now this doesn’t necessarily mean that it will have that many offers, and these examples are not typical of all houses.  What it does say is that there are a lot of buyers out there, and with such low inventory, these buyers will end up driving up the prices in some of the communities.

Please take the headlines with a grain of salt and understand that 1) they are designed to draw readers and 2) that they usually report information on a national or regional level.  Prices in our area are expected to stabilize over the course of the year so if you really want to know what is happening in a particular city, zip code, or neighborhood, talk to a Realtor so that you can get the facts straight.  Chances are you will be talking house-to-house, not even neighborhood to neighborhood.

The Albany market is getting hotter now that the New Year is underway.  Based on current levels of supply and demand I don’t see the trend in price increasing much, if at all.  I can’t believe that last month the Average Sales Price for Albany was in the mid-$350k range.  But with a large amount of condo sales in the sub $350k range, and a sale above $1.1mil, Albany’s numbers are quite skewed.

http://www.dsnews.com/articles/double-dip-altos-says-prices-have-been-steadily-rising-since-then-2011-06-02

What I find completely hilarious (and true!) is that the article deems the ebb and flow of home prices as the “Catfish Recovery.”

You laugh, but think about it.  As the article references, a catfish is a bottom dweller that moves slow, feeds off of the bottom of a lake or river, then heads up to the surface, then back down, all the while bobbing up and down without a clear direction.  Sounds like some investors I know!

For months we have been saying that that we are seeing prices continue to go down.  But that isn’t true anymore, it really depends on the area and the price range.  For buyers looking in the $550k and under range I am seeing more catfish-like effects with prices; the upper end ($850k and above) seems to be holding steady, probably due in part to low inventory.

Overall inventory has dropped in the past month (down by 1.7%), which is the first reduction since November 2010.  Distressed properties continue to dominate the market, but this is also decreasing.  So while national readings indicate a .93% increase in price, it is important that you look hyper-locally to see what a particular neighborhood is experiencing.

The pending/active ratio also had a slight increase which shows that while we are still in a buyer’s market, we are trending back to normal.

Sales remain pthhth.  Days on market is increasing while median prices are decreasing, as is the average sales price.  Sales price to list price is also coming down.

• Existing, single-family home sales decreased 8.1 percent in April to a seasonally adjusted rate of 483,830 units on an annualized basis compared with April 2009.

• The statewide median price of an existing single-family home increased 21 percent in April to $306,230, compared with April 2009.

Click here for a link to the April report for median prices in California cities, comparing April 2009 vs. April 2009.  How is your city doing?

http://www.car.org/marketdata/historicalprices/2010medianprices/apr2010medianprices/

If you don’t see your city in the above chart, try here:

http://www.dqnews.com/Charts/Monthly-Charts/SF-Chronicle-Charts/ZIPSFC.aspx

Oh wow, check out the average DOM (days on market) for Dec 09- 227 days!  If you would like more information for Albany, CA, or other areas, then shoot me an email.

U.S. MULTI HOUSING MARKET STRENGTH FORECAST
Top 10 Markets 2010-2014United States Overall Score* Rank

1.     Los Angeles 64.8
2.     Washington, D.C. 60.5
3.     Orange County, Calif. 60.1
4.     San Diego 58.3
5.     Oakland/East Bay, Calif. 58.1
6.     Long Island, N.Y. 56.5
7.     Atlanta 55.7
8.     Portland, Ore. 55.0
9.     Westchester County, N.Y. 54.8
10.   San Francisco 53.5

*Markets were ranked from 0 to 100 against 15 property, economic and
demographic variables.

Click here to see the original article, including their other top 10′s.  http://www.4-traders.com/GRUBB-EGRUBB-ELL-29387/news/GRUBB-EGRUBB-ELL-Grubb-Ellis-Predicts-Commercial-Real-Estate-Will-Decline-More-Slowly-in-2010-Recove-13301525/ 

SOURCE Grubb & Ellis Company

This article, posted today in the Daily Californian, explains this further.  Several of my colleagues are quoted- kuddos to them for their part in this article. 

Daily Californian
By Melody Ng
Contributing Writer
Monday, November 2, 2009
Although the poor economy has caused home prices to plummet nationwide, Southwest Berkeley home prices actually increased while those in the Berkeley Hills have followed the national trend.

A federal tax credit and a high level of foreclosed homes in Southwest Berkeley may be partially responsible for this disparity, according to real estate experts.

Statistics released by the California Association of Realtors revealed the median home price in Berkeley decreased 12 percent from September 2008 to September 2009-compared with a 7.3 percent decrease county wide.

“I believe in Berkeley it’s much more complex than that,” said Tracy Sichterman, a realtor for Berkeley Hills Realty. “It depends on the location, the condition (of the house) and the funding paradigm that fits your house.”

Sichterman gathered data on housing prices for single-family residences in the Berkeley Hills (94708) and Southwest Berkeley (94702) for the same period, which revealed the median housing price in Southwest Berkeley had risen 31 percent while falling 32 percent in the Berkeley Hills.

According to Sichterman, prices for Southwest Berkeley homes may be rising because of current government incentives for first-time home buyers who buy within smaller price ranges.

The federal housing stimulus package, established under the 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, offers first-time home buyers who earn under $75,000 annually a tax credit of up to $8,000.

“Houses on the lower price ranges are more accessible because of the stimulus package, tax credits (and) lending (that is) more easily obtained,” she said.

High levels of foreclosed homes in Southwest Berkeley in the past year may also account for the increase, according to Cynthia Kroll, senior regional economist for the UC Berkeley Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics.

“In the Southside area, prices increased from what was an already depressed price,” she said. “In the hills area, you’re seeing prices softening but from price levels that probably held up pretty well until the last few months.”

Bill Fletcher, a realtor for Red Oak Realty, said people who buy homes in the Berkeley Hills are typically already homeowners looking to trade up.

Fletcher added that people living in Southwest Berkeley may not want to sell their homes in the current economic climate, which results in a decreased number of homes available.

“Right now everything is very, very hot,” he said. “Anything that is priced competitively is going way above the list price.”

Tracy Veseley, the city’s budget manager, said the decrease in home sales has reduced city revenue from transaction property taxes generated with each home sale by 50 to 60 percent.

However, she added that the city’s home prices are faring better than many others’ statewide.

“While (the sale values of homes) may be down a few percentage points, I don’t think were seeing the decline in home prices you’re seeing in other areas of California,” she said.

 Read the original report here: http://www.dailycal.org/article/107314/home_prices_rise_in_southwest_berkeley